How the Energy Transition will reshape Geopolitics

Delivering sustainable economic growth
Posted May 14, 2019 | Nature magazine, Andreas Goldthau, Kirsten Westphal

The paths to a low-carbon economy will create rivalries, winners and losers, warn Andreas Goldthau and Kirsten Westphal in this article in Nature magazine. In their four geopolitical scenarios, they illustrate how varied the transition could be by 2030.  Decisive factors include the degree to which powerful fossil-fuel lobbies are able to resist change; whether incumbent regulatory environments hold back the advance of renewables; and whether low-carbon know-how finds its way from the global north to the south. Among the institutions that should take the lead in managing the transition, the G20 is a clear candidate. As it accounts for nearly 80 percent of global emissions, it could provide global leadership and financial support, building on its Climate and Energy Action Plan for Growth and cemented by a tripartite agreement between China, the EU and the United States.


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