The Chinese Communist Party Wants a Han Baby Boom That Isn’t Coming

Delivering sustainable economic growth
Posted Jul 08, 2020 | Foreign Policy, Lyman Stone

The removal of the one-child policy in 2015 did not create a baby boom,  to the surprise of Chinese policymakers who believed that the low birth rates were due to strict policing, despite similarly low birth rates in Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, South Korea, Japan.  Lyman Stone suggests in this article for Foreign Policy that it will be difficult for China to achieve meaningfully higher birth rates without radically adjusting government spending on social welfare, especially for elders, and without easing up on Sinicization initiatives. Since such policy shifts are likely to threaten China’s core strategic concerns - the military budget and ethnic unity - neither is likely to occur. As a result, China’s population decline is likely to continue.


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