Introduction: How Can Policy Makers Predict the Unpredictable?

Delivering sustainable economic growth
Posted Nov 13, 2020 | Center for International Governance Innovation, Meg King, Aaron Shull

Much as electrical power changed the world more than a century ago by transforming every industry from transportation to health care to manufacturing, artificial intelligence (AI) could effect similar, if not greater, disruption. Meg King and Aaron Shull suggest in this article for the Center for International Governance Innovation that policymakers around the world are leaning on historical analogies to try to predict how AI – which is itself a prediction technology - will develop. They are searching for clues to inform appropriate policies to help foster innovation while addressing security risks. The authors conclude that while narrow AI systems will likely continue to outperform their human counterparts, there is little evidence to suggest that these applications, as sophisticated as they may be, will evolve rapidly into systems with general intelligence.


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