Differentiated EUrope 2035: Elaboration and Evaluation of Five Potential Scenarios

Improving global governance
Posted Oct 16, 2021 | Istituto Affari Internazionali, Janis Emmanouilidis

The past decades have shown that not all member states of the European Union are able or willing to participate in the deepening of European integration with the same intensity and speed. In future, differentiation will remain necessary if the EU and its members are to avert stalemate and improve the functioning of the Union.  In this paper for the Istituto Affari Internazionali, Janis Emmanouilidis develops and evaluates five potential scenarios for a differentiated EU by 2035: status quo differentiation; muddling upwards; fundamental disruption of differentiation; creation of an inner core; and a new supranational union. He analyses how the scenarios might lead to high(er) or low(er) levels of effectiveness and legitimacy, defined by democratic accountability.



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