Same Shock, different Effects. EU Member States’ Exposure to the Economic Consequences of Putin’s War

Addressing vulnerability and promoting security
Posted May 13, 2022 | Hertie School of Governance, Nils Redeker

The economic knock-on effects of the Russian invasion of Ukraine will be felt throughout Europe, differing from country to country. In this brief by Hertie School of Governance, Nils Redeker looks at differences in exposure, focusing on direct trade links, potential costs of energy dependence on Russia, and vulnerabilities to rising energy prices. He shows that EU member states’ vulnerability to the economic consequences of the war is very unevenly distributed. Keeping the 27 member states united in the response to Russia will be paramount in the months, and perhaps years, to come. To cushion the economic blow and ensure political unity, the EU will likely have to organise some economic burden-sharing that takes differences in vulnerability and economic costs into account to avoid differential economic impacts that may cause those member states hit hardest to drop out of the united front against Russia.


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