The “Desert Flower” Scenario: The Development Possibilities for the Sahel Countries

Delivering sustainable economic growth
Posted May 12, 2021 | Ideas for Development, Stellah Kwasi, Jakkie Cilliers

In this paper by Ideas for Development, Stellah Kwasi and Jakkie Cilliers model policy interventions to achieve a more peaceful and prosperous development trajectory for the Sahel countries Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger. They compare a positive Desert Flower scenario with the Current Path. The Desert Flower scenario includes six cluster areas of intervention: population growth, agriculture, infrastructure, education, governance and external support, and stability. Benchmarking the interventions to progress made in other countries at similar levels of development, the authors suggest that given the low levels of development in the region, these six components are foundational for the future. As interventions that affect demographics and education take longer to manifest, their impact will only be felt towards the end of the scenario horizon but steadily increase in effect thereafter.


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